Open-Source Fire Science

Wildfire Models Pyregence

Vegetation Simulation Models

Understanding how California’s landscapes will respond to a changing climate requires tools that can simulate the dynamic interplay among vegetation growth, wildfire, land use, and carbon cycling. Within the Pyregence Long-Term Wildfire and Vegetation Modeling Framework, two complementary models, the LANDIS-II dynamic vegetation model and the LUCAS land-use and carbon model, project how ecosystems, biomass, and carbon storage will evolve through the end of the 21st century. Both models capture how climate, management, and natural disturbances influence vegetation structure and function over time, providing critical insights into how forest health, fuel accumulation, and carbon sequestration may change under different policy and environmental futures. Using high-resolution spatial data and advanced process-based modeling, LANDIS-II focuses on forest succession and disturbance dynamics at the regional scale, while LUCAS provides statewide simulations of land cover transitions, vegetation change, and carbon fluxes across all ecosystems. Together, these models form a powerful scientific foundation for California’s climate resilience planning, enabling data-driven strategies to balance wildfire risk reduction, ecosystem restoration, and carbon management in a warming world.

OUR Vegetation Modeling Frameworks