Open-Source Fire Science
Open-Source Fire Science
The Pyregence project addresses the escalating wildfire risks in California and the Western United States, driven by climate change, past forest management practices, and the expansion of human development near wildlands. The primary goal was to advance wildfire science and develop next-generation wildfire models and decision support tools to enhance the resiliency and safety of California’s electric grid. The project was structured around four workgroups, each focusing on different aspects of wildfire science and modeling, including extreme weather, tree mortality, and near- and long-term wildfire hazard forecasting.
Key achievements included the optimization of weather station placement using novel modeling techniques, the development and enhancement of near-term wildfire risk and spread models, and the creation of PyreCast, an open-source wildfire situational awareness platform. The project also made significant strides in understanding the influence of climate change on fire weather patterns, predicting future wildfire risks associated with a changing climate and with tree mortality and fuels.
Research findings underscore the importance of region-specific adaptation strategies, improved weather monitoring, and the integration of advanced fire behavior models to better predict and manage wildfires. This work provides critical insights and tools that will aid in protecting California’s electric grid and communities from the increasing threat of wildfires.
Developed in response to California’s growing wildfire crisis, Pyregence helps address a critical gap: turning complex fire science into actionable intelligence. From predictive fire spread models to emissions inventories and decision-support dashboards, Pyregence is helping shape a safer, more climate-resilient future.
The benefits of science, models, and applications developed through the Pyregence project for different stakeholder groups include:
The optimization of weather station placement using novel modeling techniques.
The development and enhancement of near-term wildfire risk and spreadh models.
Developed in response to California’s growing wildfire crisis, Pyregence helps address a critical gap: turning complex fire science into actionable intelligence.
The Pyregence Project Team was established through the California Energy Commission’s EPIC program to advance next-generation wildfire science through four specialized working groups led by Dr. Janice Coen (Extreme Weather), Dr. Scott Stephens (Fuels & Fire Behavior), Dr. Chris Lautenberger (Near-Term Simulation), and Dr. LeRoy Westerling (Long-Term Projections), with Dr. David Saah as PI. Their research and collaborative teams delivered the foundational data, models, and tools that continue to inform wildfire resilience efforts across California and beyond.
Eagle Rock Analytics is led by climate scientist and data analyst, Owen Doherty, PhD. Dr. Doherty received his bachelor of science degree from Cornell University in 2003 and his doctorate in marine and atmospheric sciences from Stony Brook University in 2012. Dr. Doherty is an experienced project manager with scientific expertise in global climate and is comfortable analyzing a wide range of data, from biochemical data to climate models to remote sensing data.
Mariko Geronimo Aydin brings 20 years of experience in electricity system policy and economics, spanning regulation, deregulation, and wholesale market design, and now focuses on adapting planning processes and analytical tools for a rapidly evolving clean-energy landscape by helping clients unlock the untapped potential of customer engagement, advanced data analytics, emerging technologies, and modernized utility business models to build a more flexible, cost-effective, and sustainable electricity grid.
Phil Dye, founder and CEO of Prometheus Fire Consulting LLC, brings over 25 years of California Fire Service experience to his work specializing in prescribed fire planning, training, and incident management—serving as a Planning Section Chief on California Interagency Incident Management Team 13, leading prescribed fire projects with federal, state, local, and private partners across multiple states, contributing to the development and instruction of the State Certified Prescribed Fire Burn Boss (CARX) program, and operating as a qualified Prescribed Fire Burn Boss, Type 2 (RXB2).
Delaney Seeburger, a licensed Fire Protection Engineer and Wildfire Modeler, brings over five years of experience in weather analytics, fire spread modeling, and risk management—supporting wildfire mitigation planning, developing fire potential indices, conducting statistical weather analyses at Reax Engineering, collaborating on wildland fire research with Worcester Polytechnic Institute, contributing to fire and life safety work with Jensen-Hughes and the National Park Service, and grounding her technical expertise in a master’s degree in Fire Protection Engineering from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and a bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from Hope College.
A fire protection engineer and fire scientist specializing in wildland-urban fire modeling and risk analysis, he focuses on reducing fire threats to communities, critical infrastructure, and natural environments through advanced fire behavior analysis, application of emerging wildfire technologies, development of mitigation strategies, performance-based design engineering, and fire/life safety code consulting, while pursuing a PhD in Mechanical Engineering at the University of California, Berkeley to advance fire spread modeling using heat transfer principles, data science, and optimization techniques as an Associate at Reax Engineering Inc.
Dr. Chris Lautenberger, President & CEO of CloudFire Inc., is a licensed Fire Protection Engineer with more than 20 years of experience in fire science, fire dynamics, fire modeling, and forensic fire reconstruction—developing open-source wildfire spread and risk models; publishing extensively on combustion, ignition, pyrolysis, flammability, and fire modeling; advancing analytical tools for particle ignition, utility-related fire risk, and wildland fire propagation; providing expert testimony in over 25 major fire-related cases; and teaching graduate-level fire dynamics and modeling at California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo.
Dr. Chris Anderson builds forest mapping systems to reveal how the world’s ecosystems are changing from space and how people are changing with them, drawing on experience as Science Lead for the Forest Ecosystems team at Planet Labs, co-founder and CTO of conservation technology company Salo Sciences, a PhD from Stanford University’s Center for Conservation Biology, and years spent at the Carnegie Institution for Science’s Department of Global Ecology flying with the Carnegie Airborne Observatory to study forests around the world.
Dr. David Marvin builds satellite-based forest-mapping systems to track global ecosystem change and human impacts, serving as Science Lead for the Forest Ecosystems team at Planet Labs following his tenure as co-founder and CTO of Salo Sciences, and leveraging a PhD from Stanford’s Center for Conservation Biology and field experience with the Carnegie Institution for Science.
For more than a decade, Bryan has served as a primary GIS lead at Sonoma Technology—managing, maintaining, and coordinating geospatial systems; supporting staff and clients as a technical resource; and specializing in spatial data processing, analysis, and visualization to understand links between air quality and human health—while actively contributing to professional GIS communities and grounding his expertise in a BA in Geography from Sonoma State University and an MBA in Environmental Management from Ashford University.
Ms. Lavezzo, a senior leader at Sonoma Technology since 1996, coordinates the Fire and Smoke Sciences Program and manages complex litigation service projects—leading wildfire pre-planning and mitigation efforts, overseeing the development of fire science and environmental data tools, and guiding strategic analyses and scientific reporting for regulatory and legal matters, supported by an MBA from Saint Mary’s College and a BS in Chemistry from Sonoma State University.
Alice is a software engineer and PyreCast developer focused on building scientific microservices, bringing experience from early-stage startups where she worked with NLP tools, messaging systems, and large-scale data, and finding fulfillment at SIG through applying her skills and interest in functional programming to wildfire-focused technology.
Andrea Raschke is SIG’s Product Designer, bringing over a decade of visual and product design experience to create functional, user-focused digital tools; she has significantly improved the user experience of PyreCast, and other tools through her expertise in product architecture, design, development, and research, consistently advancing accessibility and UX standards, and holds degrees in visual design, graphic design, programming, and development, including studies at UC Berkeley & AI Product Design at Stanford University.